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Saturday, October 03, 2009

Warrant - What expert say

Originally by Zack-Bursa

Zack Bursa N
Some ask, Zack! why can u be so accurate on warrants? do u have insider news or u're just a genius?

What Zack knows is FA, he knows what is undervalued and what is overvalued.

I have received lots of messages asking market has moved up too fast, should we sell it now?... Read more

Well, like I said before, I don't know where is the bottom and where is the peak but what I do know is market is never wrong! If u think market is too high and u sell off ur shares and later on, the market shoots up again, u are wrong, market is right or if u think it is too low, u jump in and the market comes down, once again u are wrong and market is again right! This is what people call market will never be wrong!

All this is just like telling me my mother is female, buy low sell high, my father is male... haha!

Though market is never wrong but still I have ways to deal with her since i cannot beat her, I have to join her. How to join her? use TA? of course NOT! The more u use TA the more u suffer!

The solution is simple:-

2 things

1) Fund allocation. Monitor ur cash vs shares ratio.... Read more

2) Sell and buy in stages.

U don't know where is the peak, hence sell in stages like what I did to PANTECH, ALAM n ZELAN .

Same goes to buying in stages.

U know very well, market will never go below 900 anymore.. hence, u can allocate ur fund in 3 buying stages 1150, 1100 and 1000.

Ok.. lets come back 2 warrant.

How to pick a good warrant ?

Before I show u how to pick a good warrant, I must first show u my proven track records in warrants (warrant album).

First, YTL-wb bought in year 2002, cost 0.52 for 213 lots

sold all @ avg 1.60+ , Profit RM200K+

Second, IJM-wb bought in year 2006, cost 0.38 for 278 lots

sold all @ avg 1.20+- , Profit RM220K+

Third, the latest one, YTLpwr-wb bought in 2008, cost 0.49 for 100 lots.

sold all @ avg 0.76 , Profit RM25K+

Total profit made from warrant = RM450K+.. How do you like that? :)

What is a good warrant ?

3 criterias

1) Must be in money, what is in money warrant? In money warrant is the premium that u get after u minus out ur cost and conversion from its mom.... Read more

Example : TGOFF-wa

As at 8th May 09

Mom = 1.25

TGOFF-wa= 0.69

Conversion = 0.55

Hence, 0.69 + 0.55= 1.24

1.25 - 1.24 = 1cent , premium = 0.01/1.24 = 0.8%

Due to cost and time factor, any premium below 30% is still considered as in money warrant. What is the 30% premium for TGOFF @ 1.25 ? The answer is 1.08 .

1.08 + 0.55 =1.63

1.63 - 1.25 /1.25 x 100% = premium 30%

In another word, the FV for TGOFF-wa is 1.08! $$$$$$$

2) Future earnings of its mom, take a look at my previous warrant purchases , all are bluechips such as YTL and IJM. The latest one is Tanjong offshore, with its status of political link darling and orders in hand, I foresee its future earnings to be a good one.

3) Expiry date must be at least 3 years and above, why? Simple.. cos u don't know what will happen tomorrow, what if another 911 happens tonight? Once its mom dive from the sky, your premium could be gone with the wind also, hence longer expiry date is essential.

Also guys check out yourself, besides YTLpwrwb, how many of the warrants in KLSE could satisfy the above criterias?... Read more

The answer is XXXXX :) Still no clue?

Same old saying, we are not smart as Warren or Li kar sing, we all wish to be them but we're not. So how??

Since we cannot be them.. we can follow their method, what made them who they are now? That's the thing we need to learn from them.

Everybody wants to be a genius, but how many of us are born a genius? born dumb is not ur fault. Follow those smart people and u'll never be wrong!

The saddest thing is "you are less smart but still you think you are very smart!

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